This article aims to let me digest the lens of both optimistic and pessimistic cases for the global economy in an attempt to forecast some potential futures.
The Optimistic Case
Here we assume breakthroughs in technology as well as a dollar-dominated reserve currency.
The global economy manages to continue on its path of debt-based monetary policy and the economy continues to expand as technology increases productivity. Global trade widens as countries see the obvious benefit of cheap trade – providing developing economies a path forward.
China is able to overcome its population problems and the CCP takes its blades off the neck of Chinese corps. China slowly becomes a service economy and manufacturing exports move to develop Asian countries.
Verticle farming becomes the norm.
Russia has new leadership and now is looking to expand its export economy as well as continue its production in sciences. Material science becomes the new computer science as we look for breakthroughs in synthetic materials.
Technology breakthroughs raise the minimum IQ for employment to a point universal basic income is necessary. The healthcare system is completely revamped to be proactive based on wearable technology that constantly monitors the health and indicates potential problems. (As well as detailed gene sequencing to indicate what a patient is predisposed to.)
Some questions remain:
- What is the power source? Nuclear? New tech? Climate change was not a big deal after all? Not sure...
- Do developed countries move from a service economy to an attention economy? Just being primarily the governors of the machines.
(Work in progress....)
Multipolar national protectionism. We see global conflicts continue to rise, commodities continue to become more scarce, and populations fail to replace themselves. This leads to a global depression meanwhile technology improvements stagnate and regulations on carbon limit future developing countries' ability to grow rapidly.
Prices across the board decline and governments raise taxes to maintain their debt obligations.
Politics further polarize.
Etc. tbh this is the easy case bc its the one that is in your face.
As it usually is... the reality will be neither of these. But it is good to remember that the optimistic case does exist and there are paths forward that could lead to it.
Suppose the failures of Russia in Ukraine lead to a Russian revolution and a new actually democratic government follows. The old school generation dies off and a new generation replaces it, one that is internet native and connected to the global system. China follows suit.
Then the WEF gets what it whats. You will own nothing, and be happy. Pay for your food, rent, and car. All with a global currency.
A more realistic plan is just to go with what is.